When defining a profitable betting strategy, proven greyhounds, or proven winners should be front and centre of every punters mind. But what defines ‘proven’ when analysing greyhound form? Identifying greyhounds that have already delivered winning performances at a level which they are competing in again, is a sure fire way of picking more winners, but ‘proving’ this ability is not as black and white as it seems.
Defining ‘Proven’ for your betting strategy
A proven winner is a greyhound which has won over the specific distance and specific grade. The aim is to identify a dog that is not being asked to do anything more than it has achieved in the past. So a dog needs to have winning form over the same distance, and in the same grade as the race being studied. Such a greyhound would not need to improve in order to win, and that is the key to being ‘proven’.
Grade is clearly key for your betting strategy. If we are looking for dogs who have proved they can win at that level, then previous winning form over the grade we are analysing is obviously the biggest thing we want to find. A dog that has won in the grade, reasonably recently, is therefore well capable of repeating that performance, and beating it’s peers again. Distance is a very close second in terms of importance – again we want dogs who have done it all before, so we want those who have won over the distance – or very close to it.
If a greyhound has won on the track previously, then it can back up distance and grade form but it should not carry as much weight as those two factors in your betting strategy. A win at a particular track – if over a different distance, or different class of race, is not proof that the dog can win the race being looked at. So a win on the specific track, does not mean a greyhound is ‘proven’ in the context of the race being analysed, unless the distance and grade were the same.
Box form is another consideration in terms of a greyhound proving it’s ability. Winning form from the same starting box is obviously a benefit, and backs up other factors – but failure to win from a box in the past does not make a dog ‘unproven’. Question marks might be raised if a greyhound has clearly struggled from wide draws, or had similar box problems, and while these will feed into any handicapping, or betting value calculation, if a dog has proven form, these question marks should not devalue it hugely.
Recent form is important
The word ‘recent’ has been used already, and it is an important element – but perhaps not always black or white. If a dog has proved itself over grade and distance, the next step is to judge how recent the form is, and it can be summed up very briefly – the more recent the proven form, the better. If the winning form is out of date, then enough doubt has crept in to remove the ‘proven’ tag from the greyhound being assessed. A past champion living on former glories cannot be considered proven, even if it won 15 times over grade and distance in it’s prime. Detailing how long is ‘too long’ is very difficult and handicappers need to use their judgement. A dog on the slide might be quite easy to spot, and old form can be ignored confidently, but other scenarios that are less clear may crop up – a dog returning from injury perhaps, or switching trainers. Each case has to be considered on merit, but recent form should always be given far more credibility than old form.
Proven conclusions, proven profits
Proven greyhounds are the bread and butter for betting professionals and spotting them is a quick route to a profitable betting strategy. Grade and distance are the important elements to look for, and there will be then be secondary considerations to back up and selections.